It does not make any logical sense to keep gambling. We have to be aware that our brains are wired differently. If you ask any person on the street about gambling, they would say we gamblers are out of our minds. And they are correct. Just think about it for a minute. Handle your whole paycheck to a stranger in exchange for making you stressed out the whole time? even worse, handing out future paychecks (debt) in exchange for bad things? Thinking about it, I think what we are buying is hope. We hope we can strike it big. But even then, we might strike it big, but only to lose all of it again in an instant. Numbers do not lie. The law of big numbers say that we will lose the house edge of all our bets placed, which in the end, that tiny percentage, will be huge. You’ll be shocked. I am 31, and realized that if I keep doing what I do, I will be 40 in no time, at a very crucial time in our lives. I have been gambling for some 11 years total. On and off. I have had several episodes where I have really wanted to stop, even 10 years back. I wished I did. I remember six years ago, a guy at a blackjack table asked me to have a smoke with him outside and warned me about gambling. He said I looked like a decent person and doesn’t want me on the path he and other people are in. 60k gambling down the drain in my lifetime, of which 8k is debt. Some 30k on some other risky investments. I wish I stopped eight years ago when I fessed up to a friend. I wish I stopped six years ago when I was pissed about losing 200 dollars and the guy at the casino gave me a friendly reminder of what gambling is on a bigger scale. I wished I stopped two years ago, when I fessed up to my mom crying. I wish I stopped a year ago, after I lost income due to covid, which made the debt situation worse. I do not want to be a year from now saying: I wish I stopped February 2021. If you are 20 years old and have lost 10k, just think about being 30 and losing 100k. Or 40 and being down 500k. Or 50 and down a million. Just stop now. See my other thread on how we lose big with the seemingly small house edge. To recap my gambling career: 60k loss. 8k debt. Probably some ten thousand hours lost gambling, many others lying and worrying. At the same time, that was time I could have done something constructive with my life. I am stuck on a job I do not like, in part due to my passiveness on not keeping improve myself. Wanting to build businesses, but not doing it due to either not having money or being too busy with it. How easy life would have been if I just worked and kept money in the bank or put it on an index fund? getting home, reading a book or just chilling out? well, I was not able to do that. I fear that if I continue this path, I will be exactly where I am right now but much older. It really is unexcusable. In regards to other areas of my life, I want to get an MBA but will not bea able to pay for it nor have any mind to do it if I keep on gambling. Same goes for a side business. Regarding my personal life, I want a girlfriend but lately have let myself go, so not confidence in going out with the kind of women I would like to date. Who would want to date a broke gambler who just gets home and stares at scores at the screen? I am 31, so am still in age, I think, so will get my life on track. I will not forgive myself if I am 40 and wasted another decade on this nonsense. These are my prime years. I must use them fully. If I stop now, I think I will be able to pay off all debt and be able to pay a pending trip I have to make overseas in the summer, all in this year. It sounds easy but is hard at the same time. It sounds like a long time, but 10 months go by fast. submitted by /u/gamblingsucksass [comments]
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ปอยเปต คาสิโน ออนไลน์
January 14 2021
partypoker’s latest KO Series has been a resounding success so far and these next three tournaments are sure to prove popular. Kicking off at 7:05 p.m. GMT on January 14 are a trio of Warm Up tournaments, called such because they serve as the perfect way to warm up for the weekend’s Main Events.
They come with three different buy-ins, making it possible for players of all bankroll to get involved and potentially win big.
KO Series #20 – Warm Up Day 1A is a $320 buy-in event with a guaranteed prize pool worth $200,000. You can also play in the $33 buy-in Mini Warm Up with its $75,000 guarantee, and the $3.30 Micro Warm Up that has $10,000 guaranteed to be won.
SPINS your way into the KO Series Warm Up events
Amazing Structures Regardless of the Buy-in Level
You are in for a treat regardless of which Warm Up you play because of the amazing structures partypoker has created. Everyone sits down with 100,000 chips and the plan is to play until only 15% of the field remains. You’ll lock horns to blinds starting at 500/1,000/100, which gives you plenty of room to manoeuvrer. Those blinds increase every 16-minutes in the $320 buy-in, 14-minutes in the $33 edition, and every 12-minutes in the $3.30 Micro.
Don’t leave it too long to turn up fashionably late because late registration slams shut after the 10th level concludes. Dust off your stack while late registration is open and you can re-enter once and only once, which levels the playing field somewhat.
The second of three flights in each of the three events shuffles up and deals at the same time, 7:05 p.m., on January 15. The structure and format is a carbon copy of Day 1A with 15% of the field progressing to Day 2.
Those of you planning to grind on Day 1C need to head to partypoker at 4:05 p.m. GMT. Playing Day 1C means the clock is a little shorter than the previous two flights. Blinds increase every 10-minutes in the $320 Warm Up and nine minutes in both the Mini and Micro.
Day 2 starts at 8:05 p.m. GMT prompt and continues until only one player remains in each tournament, that player becoming a KO Series champion and padding their bankroll with what should be a chunky top prize and a bucketful of bounty payments.
Will You Become partypoker’s Legend of the Week?
KO Series Warm Up Schedule
Thu 14 Jan7:05 p.m.KO Series #20 – Warm Up Day 1A: $200K Gtd$320
7:05 p.m.KO Series #20 – Mini Warm Up Day 1A: $75K Gtd$33
7:05 p.m.KO Series #20 – Micro Warm Up Day 1A: $10K Gtd$3.30
Fri 15 Jan7:05 p.m.KO Series #20 – Warm Up Day 1B: $200K Gtd$320
7:05 p.m.KO Series #20 – Mini Warm Up Day 1B: $75K Gtd$33
7:05 p.m.KO Series #20 – Micro Warm Up Day 1B: $10K Gtd$3.30
Sat 16 Jan4:05 p.m.KO Series #20 – Warm Up Day 1C: $200K Gtd$320
4:05 p.m.KO Series #20 – Mini Warm Up Day 1C: $75K Gtd$33
4:05 p.m.KO Series #20 – Micro Warm Up Day 1C: $10K Gtd$3.30
8:05 p.m.KO Series #20 – Warm Up Day 2: $200K Gtd
8:05 p.m.KO Series #20 – Mini Warm Up Day 2: $75K Gtd
8:05 p.m.KO Series #20 – Micro Warm Up Day 2: $10K Gtd
Win Big From New Year Rush With Your Shiny, New partypoker Account
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Those of you without an account can download partypoker via PokerNews and help yourself to £40 worth of SPINS and MTT tickets. The tickets are released into your account over the space of a week following your qualifying deposit.
Deposit £10 to receive the following package:
Day 1: 5x $1 SPINS tickets +1x $5.50 MTT ticketDay 2: 1x $3 SPINS tickets +1x $3.30 MTT ticketDay 3: 1x $3 SPINS tickets +2x $3.30 MTT ticketDay 4: 4x $0.25 SPINS tickets +1x $5.50 MTT ticketDay 5: 1x $5 SPINS tickets +1x $3.30 MTT ticketDay 6: 5x $1 SPINS tickets +1x $5.50 MTT ticket
If you enjoy poker, making a living from playing this game seems like living the dream.
Do something you love, and it will never feel like work.
But, before you go all in, you should be aware of all of the pros and cons that come with playing poker for a living.
If you’re considering getting more serious about your potential poker career, here are some of the most prominent advantages and disadvantages that come with being a professional poker player.
The Advantages of Playing Poker for a Living
You Own Your Own Time
If you’re playing poker for a living, you’re effectively choosing your work hours. Being your own boss, especially in a career path such as this, means that you’re entirely free to tailor your own time and make the best of every day.
The hassle of working night shifts or waking up early every morning to drive to work won’t be a problem if you gown down this road.
Your “offices” are the online poker tables and live poker tournaments you choose to participate in.
Just keep in mind that you must maintain great discipline in such a job, as not to lose yourself in the flexibility and freedom of your own time.
No Salary Ceiling
The biggest reason most poker players want to go professional is the unlimited profit available for those who dare to claim it.
Although money shouldn’t be your primary motivator, it’s hard not to think about the multi-million prizes at the biggest poker tournaments in the world.
Even if you are just starting out playing online on real money poker sites, there are still countless options with prizes significantly more extensive than what most working people can earn in their day jobs.
Plus, the best part about this is that there’s no salary ceiling on how much you can bring home each month.
Living and Traveling Anywhere in the World
Another great advantage of playing poker for a living is that you can experience the feeling of always being on vacation while traveling for work and making money in the process.
If you plan on becoming a full-time poker player, you can look forward to frequently traveling to some of the biggest and most exciting cities in the world.
From Las Vegas and London to Barcelona and Monaco, you make your own schedule as packed or free as you wish.
Moreover, as a professional poker player, you have unlimited freedom in choosing a location where you want to settle down.
If you want to make your home in a sunny and warm place, you can select a popular poker destination such as the Caribbean.
This will allow you to enjoy endless summers while still being very close to some of the most popular and rewarding poker tournaments.
The Disadvantages of Playing Poker for a Living
No Guaranteed Income
The most significant benefit of a day job is that you know exactly how much money you’re earning every month.
When you switch up your day job for a professional poker career, this safety net disappears.
While it’s true that you’ll be able to win massive amounts of money potentially, there’s no telling when or even if this will come.
Instability of income is a typical tradeoff in many careers that offer a higher profit ceiling.
If you like playing it safe and can’t risk running a negative balance for a few weeks or months, pursuing a career in Texas Hold’em probably isn’t the best way to go.
That said, if you’re ready to accept the swings and have the mindset to handle the pressure of unstable earnings, you can turn this disadvantage into your advantage.
The Road to Success Can be Arduous
Watching Daniel Negreanu toy with his opponents makes it seem almost effortless. But, most of us forget that we’re watching the end result of years of studying the game and the psychology of their competitors.
All professional poker players have experienced great highs and lows throughout their long journey.
Don’t go into it thinking that it’s going a smooth ride all of the time. Confidence is a must-have, but you should continuously work on your skills to back this up.
Of course, some players have achieved great success in their first few years of playing the game, but these are outliers.
If you’re aiming to make poker your lifetime career, you need to arm yourself with patience and always remember that you’re in it for the long run, and variance will catch up with you eventually.
Stable Budget Needed to Start
Although poker offers you the opportunity to win a lot of money, you also need to have adequate starting capital before you even consider devoting all of your attention to the game.
The lack of money is one of the more significant reasons why most players don’t commit to playing poker professionally.
For many players, it can take years before they can get to a consistent level of winning in poker. If you don’t have the capital to start or a stable day job to cover your poker losses, you can quickly grow tired of the stress and grind.
It’s crucial to remember that success isn’t guaranteed and that you should never risk the money you can’t afford to lose. Learning good bankroll management is a must!
Are you Ready to Become a Professional Poker Player?
The hard truth is that not everyone is cut out to be a world-class poker player. But, with enough patience and work, you can make a great living from playing poker.
This is because, ultimately, the pros heavily outweigh the cons, and most players who truly commit to studying and learning the game can succeed in it.
If you’re passionate about poker and ready to put your energy into it, nothing is stopping you from making a career out of it.
To get some help on your path, check out the best poker training sites out there, as you’ll find plenty of great resources here.
He is the mystery man who few in the sport had heard of just days ago. But Aslan Karatsev of Russia has landed in the semifinals of the Australian Open.In one of the most unlikely runs in the history of modern tennis, Karatsev on Tuesday became one of the few players to make the final four of a Grand Slam after surviving the qualifying tournament when he beat an ailing Grigor Dimitrov of Bulgaria in four sets 2-6, 6-4, 6-1, 6-2.Karatsev, 27, who was born in Russia, moved to Israel as a child, then returned to Russia as a teenager to pursue better tennis training, according to The Times of Israel. He had been playing in the tennis hinterlands for several years with little success. He had never qualified for a Grand Slam before this tournament. He won three straight matches at the Australian Open qualifying event in Doha to win a spot in the main event and came in ranked No. 114 in the world. He has never been ranked higher than No. 111.Dimitrov appeared to have the match under control after the first set but suffered what looked to be back spasms in the third set and appeared to be on the edge of retiring for the rest of the match.Just four other players have made the semifinals of a Grand Slam after getting through the qualifying event.Ahead of the Australian Open, he played doubles for Team Russia in the ATP Cup, a team event in which players represent their countries. Russia won the competition, but not because of Karatsev, who lost all three matches in which he played with two different partners.His teammates noticed that he was playing as well as they had ever seen, and yet none of them would have predicted anything like this.“We felt like he could do something amazing,” Daniil Medvedev, Russia’s top player and the No. 4 seed in the Australian Open. “To be honest, being in your first Grand Slam main draw? Making quarters is something exceptional. He’s not over yet.”He certainly is not.Karatsev will take on the winner of the match between Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev, which is scheduled for Tuesday night.
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The grandstand at Chester | Chester Race Company
A plan for a mass lateral flow COVID-19 testing programme was unveiled by Chester Race Company Ltd. on Monday. The course’s goal is to test up to 5,000 attendees per day at the 2021 Boodles May Festival on May 5-7. There would be three separate testing sites, enabling 1,800 lateral flow tests per hour to take place at the racecourse, with all attendees assigned a specific testing site and allocated entry time. There would also be staggered exit times. Fully-socially distanced racing experiences are also in development, so that racing fans can be in attendance safely.
“We have been working very hard with local authorities to build a clear operational procedure plan that could allow us to safely welcome back a limited number of spectators for the Boodles May Festival,” said Chester Race Company Chief Executive Richard Thomas. “The delivery of mass on-site testing is at the core of our stringent health and safety measures. Chester Racecourse could provide on-site testing facilities for 5,000 attendees per day with results within minutes.
“Our overall aim is to deliver a safe, secure environment for an enjoyable three days of racing and we hope that testing will give an added confidence to our attendees, customers, and staff, whose health and safety is of paramount importance.
“We’re proud of our innovative approach here at Chester and are keen to be one of the first venues to be able to bring crowds back safely to live sport. Chester is known for providing a unique race day experience for all attendees and we have developed a number of new socially distanced concepts which will deliver an exemplary level of safety and service.”
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This story was posted in Europe, Shared News Europe, Top News Europe and tagged Chester Race Company Ltd., Chester Racecourse, Coronavirus, COVID-19, mass on-site testing plan, staggered exit strategy.
Playing low/middle-limit Texas hold’em, your goal is to go home a winner. Being the best player – the most skilled – at the table will help. But, more likely, you will rank near the middle in the skill department; let us assume that is the case. With eight opponents vying for the same pots, the cost-to-play (house rake, Bad Beat Jackpot drop, and tip to the dealer), chances are you will not be able to realize your goal.
What’s the solution? You need to win the bigger pots and only lose the smaller ones. In principle, that’s simple: Build the pots when your hands are strong; and lose less with the weaker hands. That’s a strategy that ought to apply whether you’re playing at a brick and mortar venue or on the internet at places like online casino Malta. For this column, we will focus on the latter. How can you limit your losses when your hand is not the best?
Avoid the weaker hands
The most obvious strategy is to muck weak hands even before the flop. You will be dealt your fair share of them. Avoid the temptation; save some chips. Those chips saved will add up over time and could easily be more than the cost-to-play.
The Hold’em Algorithm helps make that decision by scoring my hole cards and providing the criteria. (There are also charts available for that purpose.)
Starting with a playable hand
Mucking your weaker hands preflop does take some self-discipline. More important is how you play your hand when it is a decent starting hand but not good enough to invest a lot of chips. We are referring to starting hands such as an Ace or a King with a medium kicker, a middle pair, and suited connectors, 8-7 or higher.
These are the type of hands you should play when there is at most one raise – better yet, no raise – to see the flop and it is multi-way (three or more opponents). I label this the Hold’em Caveat. Since the chances of significant improvement on the flop are relatively small (the odds are against you), be sure there will be enough opponents to build a pot big enough to warrant your investment. (I am willing to invest one Big Blind bet, but not more; otherwise I might get myself too pot committed.)
This is analogous to using the implied pot odds after the flop, when you can easily estimate your card odds. (Note: On the flop, you get to see over 70 percent of your final hand.) If the implied pot odds are higher than your card odds, it will pay to see the turn and river cards. (You have a positive expectation.) In the long run, you are virtually assured of being a winner.
If you are the Big Blind and the pot is not raised, it costs you nothing to see the flop. It’s a free card no matter how weak your hole cards.
In the Small Blind, the Hold’em Caveat should apply. But, in practice I have seen many players calling with weaker hands. Their rationale: It is only a half-bet to see the flop. There are two problems with that thinking:
The vast majority of the time, their hand fails to improve enough to warrant further investment.
With a weak starting hand, their hand often improves just enough to keep them in the pot (chasing) in hope of further improvement which is rare. That can be very costly.
If you find yourself in a game with lots of raising preflop, look around for a friendlier table at which to invest your chips.
About George EpsteinAfter a long and productive career as a leader in the aerospace industry, upon his retirement in the 1990s, George Epstein chose poker as his “second career.”
George has been widely recognized for his many significant accomplishments and contributions to our society. These include pioneering and innovations in various materials, testing and manufacturing technologies for our defense and space programs; teaching specialized engineering courses at UCLA, other colleges, and at seven NASA centers; introducing advanced composites into Air Force space systems; and creating the Air Force Manufacturing Problem Prevention Program (has helped avoid costly failures and anomalies for space systems),
He has authored many engineering reports and books; and is listed in American Men of Science; Leaders in American Science; Who’s Who in the West; Dictionary of International Biography; and Personalities in the West and Midwest.
Since “joining” the poker world, George “The Engineer” Epstein has written three poker books – most recently, Hold’em or Fold’em?– An Algorithm for Making the Key Decision and The Art of Bluffing.
George has organized poker groups at two senior centers, at West L.A. College, and at the VA/West Los Angeles, including teaching poker classes.He is a columnist for several poker and gaming publications.
George has been elected to the Seniors Poker Hall of Fame, and was named Man-of-the-Year by the Westside Optimists, primarily for his efforts in encouraging retirees to learn and enjoy the game of poker.
He firmly believes that playing poker will help to keep seniors/retirees mentally and physically healthy.
Between Feb. 16-18, for a technology overhaul
ally’s casino in Atlantic City will temporarily close for 38 hours this week to perform a technology overhaul.
The New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement told The Associated Press on Thursday that the closure will only affect the casino floor, not the associated hotel. It will start at 8 p.m. EST February 16 and end at 10 a.m. February 18.
“We are excited to announce that Bally’s Atlantic City Hotel and Casino will be rolling out a new rewards program beginning February 18, 2021,” said Michael Monty, the casino’s assistant general manager. “The new program will provide greater rewards for Bally’s AC’s loyal players and guests, enhancing their overall gaming experience, while maintaining players’ current tier status.”
While Bally’s will continue to honor hotel reservations during the closure, “we understand that these conditions are not ideal for our players and guests. As such, customers are welcome to receive a refund on those days, if requested.” Monty said.
Bally’s was sold in November for $25 million from Caesars Entertainment to Rhode Island-based Twin River Worldwide Holdings, which subsequently changed its name to Bally’s Corp. The New Jersey Casino Control Commission in November approved the new owners to operate Bally’s after the company pledged to invest in renovations and repairs to what has become Atlantic City’s poorest-performing casino in terms of revenue.
The company has said it intends to spend at least $90 million to renovate hotel rooms, upgrade restaurants, entertainment offerings and its pool and spa, and replace or repair critical infrastructure in the 41-year-old facility.
Albadri | Racingfotos.com Albadri (Ire) (Dandy Man Ire) Jane Chapple-Hyam จะมีส่วนร่วมในเกมดาร์บี้ซาอุดีอาระเบีย 1.5 ล้านคนในวันที่ 20 กุมภาพันธ์ที่ 20 ล้าน Saudi Cup ในวันที่ 20 กุมภาพันธ์ ผู้ชนะในการเปิดตัวครั้งแรกเบย์โคลท์ลงแข่งเฉพาะใน บริษัท ด้วยเงินเดิมพันในการเริ่มต้นสี่ครั้งถัดไปโดยประตูที่ดีที่สุดคืออันดับที่ห้าใน G3 Tattersalls S. ในเดือนกันยายน การปรากฏตัวครั้งสุดท้ายของเขาในปี 2020 คือครั้งที่หกที่ G3 Horris Hill S. สองครั้งจะเริ่มในวันที่ 24 ตุลาคม ในการวิ่งครั้งสุดท้ายของเขาเขาวิ่งในหลุมสังเคราะห์ Southwell และต้อนรับเขาด้วยแฮนดิแคปเมื่อวันที่ 28 มกราคม ยิง 100-1 แต่เราได้รับคำเชิญเราจึงผ่านมันไปได้” โค้ชซัฟโฟล์คกล่าว “ เขาไปที่ใกล้เคียงที่สุดที่ฉันพบในอังกฤษนั่นคือ Southwell ฮอลลี่ [Doyle] ยินดีกับเขาและได้รับรางวัล “ มันออกมาดีมากและฉันจะบินไปที่นั่นคืนนี้ [Monday]. มีการแข่งขันสูงมาก แต่ทุก ๆ ครั้งคุณต้องจุ่มปลายเท้าลงไปในส่วนลึก มันไม่ใช่พื้นที่ขนาดใหญ่และเนื่องจากเราได้รับคำเชิญเจ้าของก็ตื่นเต้น แต่ทำไมไม่ล่ะ? เธอกล่าวเสริมว่า:“ หวังว่าเราจะได้รางวัลเงินสดซึ่งจะช่วยได้ – และเขาก็ออกมาจากการแข่งขันที่ Southwell เป็นอย่างดีและต้องการมัน เขามีรูปร่างประมาณ 85% ดังนั้นตอนนี้เขาจึงร้องเพลง เราชอบเขามาตลอด ฉันรู้สึกเหมือนได้รวบรวมม้า 100 อันดับมาโดยตลอดดังนั้นเขาจึงต้องพิสูจน์มันในวันเสาร์ “ พวกเขาจะไปอย่างรวดเร็วกับชาวอเมริกันและชาวญี่ปุ่น เมื่อเขาชนะเป็นครั้งแรกเขามาพร้อมกับความเร็ว แต่ครั้งสุดท้ายที่เขาวิ่งเขามีความหลากหลาย Hollie ขี่มันบน Horris Hill และรู้สึกดีมากในวันนั้นซึ่งเป็นสิ่งสำคัญสำหรับฉันเพราะเธอเชื่อในม้า Hollie อยู่ในวาระการประชุมอีกครั้ง “ไม่ใช่สมาชิกใช่ไหมคลิกที่นี่เพื่อสมัคร PDF หรือการแจ้งเตือนรายวันเรื่องราวนี้เผยแพร่ในยุโรป, Shared News Europe, Top News Europe และทำเครื่องหมาย Albadria (Ire), Dandy Man (Ire), Hollie Doyle, Jane Chapple- Hyam, สนามแข่งรถ King Abdulaziz, Riyadh, Saudi Cup, Saudi Derby
This article was written by blackrain79.com contributor Fran Ferlan.
Playing the river optimally is what makes or breaks your winrate.
It’s the biggest money street and you often have to make a decision for your
whole stack. The amount of money in the pot by the river often paralyzes
players, because they are overly focused on the pot size, which affects their
decision making process.
So what should you do versus a big river bet? Well, when you ask a broad
question, you tend to get a broad answer, so here it is: it depends.
There’s a lot of factors to consider here: your opponent type, previous
action, board runout, pot odds, your relative hand strength, just to name a
Not a huge help, so let’s try to break it down in this article.
1. Try to Bluff Catch Versus Loose and Aggressive Players
Let’s start with the type of player we are up against. Most players will
primarily bet for value when they fire off a big river bet, especially at the
The only exception would be loose and aggressive players. This is true for
both regulars and aggrofish. You can generally call wider against aggrofish
than you would against LAG regulars. The looser and more aggressive the
player, the wider you should call them down.
This is an advanced poker strategy that works extremely well in today’s small stakes games. BlackRain79 discusses it in more detail in this video:
So in practice, this means that sometimes you should call them down with hands
you wouldn’t be comfortable calling with otherwise, like top pair weak kicker,
second pair, two pair on a wet board and such.
It’s important to trust your judgment in these situations, otherwise you’re
better off folding earlier if you suspect you’re going to get barrelled and
pushed out of the pot.
However, just because someone is loose and aggressive, doesn’t mean they will
have only bluffs in their range, especially on the river.
The board runout is an important factor when deciding how wide you should
call. Generally speaking, the drier the board, the wider you can bluff
Because your opponent sees the same community cards you see, and if they bet
huge on the river, they’re basically saying that the board doesn’t scare them
and they don’t care what you are holding.
On the other hand, if the river bricks (i.e. a river card doesn’t change
anything significantly, because it fails to complete any straight or flush
draws, for example), your more observant opponents might put you on a busted
draw and try to bluff you out of the pot.
They can also have a busted draw of their own, as decently winning LAGs know
the power of semibluffing on earlier streets, and know a large majority of
their opponents won’t have the heart to call down their triple barrel without
a monster hand.
In this situation, you should look for an opportunity to bluff catch with your
top pair or second pair, for example. Bear in mind that this isn’t something
you should try to do often, as these kinds of situations are more of an
exception than the rule, but who doesn’t love a good hero call from time to
If you’re able to pick off a huge pot with a mediocre hand, it can do wonders
to your bottom line, as most players wouldn’t have the nerve to pull it
It will also make it more difficult to play against you, because you’ll show
that you are able to call down in less than ideal circumstances, and won’t be
Just a disclaimer:
Know that it’s a high-risk, high reward play, and should be attempted only in
specific circumstances, against specific opponents, on specific boards and
against specific previous action.
You should base it on sound information and tells you’ve picked up on, not
just the feeling that this guy is bluffing, I’m gonna call him down with my
Big River Bet Example Hand #1
Effective stack size: 100BB.
You are dealt A♦8♦ in the BB.
A LAG reg open-raises to 3x from the BU.
SB folds, you call.
You check. Villain bets 3BB. You call.
You check. Villain bets 6BB. You call.
You check. Villain bets 16BB.
You should call.
This is a great spot to bluff catch based on our opponent type, previous
action, and the board runout. Let’s break it down.
A loose and aggressive reg open raises from the button. We assume their range
is very wide here, probably close to 50% of all hands. We have a decent
speculative hand. We can even opt to 3-bet light from time to time, but we
decide to flat call.
We flop a gutshot straight draw, and we expect the villain to fire off a c-bet
with pretty much a 100% of their range, which he does.
The turn doesn’t change much for us, except it puts a possible flush draw on
the board. The villain double barrels, but since not much has changed for us
from flop to turn, and are getting about 3:1 odds on a call, we decide to
The river doesn’t complete our gutshot, but we do end up improving to a top
pair. Is it good enough for a call? Let’s look at it from the villain’s
We didn’t give him any reason to assume we are holding an Ace. In fact, we
checked three times, so if they had to put us on a range, they would assume we
have a Tx hand, a busted straight or a flush draw.
Conveniently, that’s a part of their perceived range as well. The river comes
with a scare card, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they tried to buy the pot
Are we going to be good a hundred percent of the time? Of course not, but we
don’t need to be. This is something that BlackRain79 talks about in Modern Small Stakes.
They have a significant amount of bluffs in their range for our call to be
+EV, considering their player type, their open-raising position, our passive
lines, non-coordinated board and so on.
When we take all of that into consideration, we can infer that we can call
As for the aggrofish, aka complete maniacs, you can widen your river calling
ranges considerably. It is also a high risk, high reward play, but these
players are the only ones that will have a significant amount of bluffs on the
Because their ranges are already extremely wide on previous streets, so it’s
fair to assume they will get to the river with all kinds of busted draws,
Ace-high hands, fourth pair etc.
While their aggression can certainly be profitable in the short term, as even
they can occasionally catch a monster hand, they will be the most significant
long term losers.
You can’t outrun math. So when playing against them, you should be making more
hero calls than you would usually be inclined.
Be aware that their maniacal ways are usually short-lived, so you should try
to get them to donate their stacks to you before the next guy.
And you usually won’t have the luxury of waiting around for the monster hand
to try and trap them.
So next time you find yourself facing a huge river bet against them, go with
your gut, take a deep breath and call them down. Your winrate will thank you
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2. Look for Possible Completed Draws
As far as all the other player types are concerned, like fish who aren’t of
the aggro persuasion (which is most of them) and TAGs, you should be very
careful when calling big river bets. This is especially the case if they donk
bet big into you. (A donk bet is a bet made against the previous streets’
Look for possible completed draws and ask yourself if their previous action
makes sense that way. If the answer is yes, your overpair or top two pair
probably isn’t good enough anymore.
Think of it this way: would you bet big out of position on the river against
someone’s previous incessant aggression without a really strong hand? You
probably wouldn’t. And neither would the majority of the player pool at the
Big River Bet Example Hand #2
Effective stack size: 100BB.
You are dealt A♠Q♠ on the BU.
You open-raise to 3x.
SB folds, a loose passive fish calls in the BB.
Fish checks. You bet 5BB. Fish calls.
Fish checks. You bet 16.5BB. Fish calls.
Fish bets 40BB.
You should fold.
Let’s break down the action street by street.
There’s not much to say about preflop. We’re dealt a great hand on the button,
and we can assume the recreational player will call us down pretty wide in the
We flop top two pair and should start building the pot as soon as possible. We
expect to get called by a bunch of Ax hands, gutshot straight draws, flush
draws, you name it.
The turn doesn’t change much, but it does add a couple of gutshot draws if our
opponent called the flop with hands like JT, J9, or T9, for example.
We’re still miles ahead of villain’s range, so we decide to charge them a
premium for their drawing hands. We can even consider overbettting, but we go
for a pot sized bet.
And we get one of the worst river cards possible. The fish fires off a huge
donk bet. There is nothing left for us to do but bemoan our luck and fold
The Jack on the river completes a number of straight draws and a flush draw.
If we go back to preflop, we should expect this particular opponent to have
practically all suited junk in their range.
Fish love chasing draws, and they love playing suited junk. Nevermind the fact
that the chances of flopping a flush are only 0.8%.
Now, we could argue that it’s a fish, they don’t know what they’re doing, they
could be bluffing. Or they could have any number of two pair hands we’re ahead
of. Fair enough.
But if they did have a two pair hand, for example, wouldn’t they go for a
check-call option, considering such a scary board?
Even fish can see three diamonds on a board. And yes, they could be bluffing,
but there is nothing in their previous history that would suggest that.
You should always be on the lookout for disrupting patterns when playing
If an otherwise weak and timid opponent suddenly starts blasting off big bets,
they didn’t just randomly decide to mix it up a little. They are politely
letting you know they have the nuts.
As a rule of thumb in poker in general, calling should be the last option you
consider. As the old adage goes, if your hand is good enough for a call, it’s
good enough for a raise.
3. Check Your HUD Stats to Make an Informed Decision
But how do you know what type of player you’re up against? Well, the most
accurate way would be to check their VPIP (voluntarily put money in pot), PFR
(preflop raise) and AF (aggression factor) in your poker tracking software HUD.These are statistics which are placed right on your online poker table, beside each of your opponents, which tell you what type of player you are up against. This is highly useful information to have especially in the fast paced, multi-tabling, world of online poker.
These three poker HUD stats alone can give you a pretty good idea of the type of player you’re
facing, and only after a hundred hands or so. Of course, the bigger the sample
size, the better, but you can draw some general conclusions pretty
However, as we all know, most hands don’t get to showdown, and while we can
make some wide generalizations about some player types, it’s better to have
more info than less. If you are using a HUD, you might want to consider adding
stats like WWSF, WTSD, and W$SD to accurately assess your opponent’s postflop
By the way, if you aren’t using a poker HUD yet, BlackRain79 shows you how to set up your HUD in less than 5 minutes in this video:
So, WWSF stands for Won When Saw Flop, and is a percentage of times a player won
the pot after seeing the flop. The lower the WWSF, the weaker the player,
meaning they play aggressively with very strong hands only, and conversely,
the higher the WWSF, the more they bluff and fight for the pot post flop.
Here is a rough estimation of the spectrum.Use These Specific HUD Stats to Make Optimal Decisions Versus a Big River Bet
If their WWSF is less than 42%, they are weak and give up too much post flop. They don’t bluff enough, and if they give you action, especially on the big
money streets (turn and river) they have a very strong hand.
WWSF between 42% and 52% is the average. Of course, the higher the number, the
more often they bluff.
If their WWSF is bigger than 52%, they bluff way too often. You can call them
down widely and use their aggression against them.
WTSD stands for Went to Showdown, and shows the % of times a player, well,
went to showdown.
A player with a WTSD below 20% is an extreme nit, and goes to showdown with
very strong hands only.
A WTSD between about 24% and 27% is the norm for most winning players. Players with a WTSD above 30% are huge calling stations, and you should value
bet them relentlessly.
W$SD or Won Money at Showdown (or WSD) indicates the % of times a player won
the pot after the showdown. It’s inversely proportional to the WTSD, i.e. a
player with a low WTSD will have a big W$SD because they only see the showdown
with very strong hands, and huge calling stations will have a low W$SD because
they call down with a bunch of garbage hands.
Nitty players will have a W$SD of about 60% or more, fishy players about 40%
or less. Solid winning players will therefore be right in the middle with
One very important caveat, these stats require a huge sample size in order to
You will need 500 hands at the bare minimum to make any informed assumptions.
1000 hands is a decent sample size, but they get really accurate only after
5000 hands or so.
Needless to say, the more they tend towards the extremes of the spectrum, the
less hands you need to be sure, and the more you can exploit them by either
overbluffing or betting for value, depending on which side they fall.
If you want to learn much more about all these HUD stats make sure you check out BlackRain79’s popular optimal HUD setup guide.
In order to play the river effectively, you need to take into account a number
of factors, including, but not limited to: the pot odds, your relative hand
strength, board runout, type of opponent you’re up against, previous action
and so on.
You basically have to apply all of your theoretical knowledge at the same
time. While it may seem daunting at first, the more you practice, the more
automatic the process will become, and after a while you’ll be able to put
your opponents on correct ranges, maybe even zero in on their exact hand.
It will certainly take a great deal of practice, because as we know, most
hands don’t even get to showdown, and river spots are so rare and unique that
it’s hard to even try to answer what to do in these spots in a single article.
However, there are some general guidelines you should adhere to:
First of all, big river bets usually indicate a strong made hand, especially
at the micros. Most players will bet for value, and aren’t really inclined to
risk a significant portion of their stack without something to back it up.
The only exception would be loose and aggressive players, and maybe some solid
tight and aggressive players who know what they’re doing, and know that a well
timed aggression can go a long way.
But again, these are quite rare at the micros.
So against LAGs, you should try to bluff catch from time to time if you
believe they have a significant amount of bluffs in their range.
Just bear in mind that it’s a high variance play, so be prepared to take it in
stride when they actually had the nuts all along.
Against aggrofish (aka maniac fish) you should widen your river calling ranges
significantly, and be prepared to call them down with less than ideal
Don’t wait around for a monster hand, because these don’t come along as often,
and try to take their stack before the next guy.
Lastly, if an otherwise weak and timid player starts making huge bets, your
top pair hand probably isn’t good enough anymore.
Look for completed draws and assume they have it. Make a disciplined laydown
and live to fight another day.
One bonus tip, be sure to practice hand history review off the felt. Filter
for the hands that went to showdown, and try to narrow your opponent’s range
street by street.
Talk to yourself out loud and tell yourself all the information you have. This
will sharpen your decision-making skills in-game, and you’ll be able to
accurately assess your opponent’s ranges in no time.
You’ll be able to read souls, make all kinds of huge laydowns and hero calls
like a pro. Just remember, practice makes perfect.
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